How Fast Will Lance Go?

In case you haven't heard, Lance Armstrong is running the New York Marathon on November 5th. How fast do you think he'll go? I am taking bets. The winner will get a yet-to-be-announced prize (probably the lamest bday present I get this year!).
My wager = 2:39:59. Leave me a comment or shoot a mail (ravisraman@gmail.com) with your guess. This is Price Is Right style, closest without going over wins. I'll publish the wagers in future posts as they come in.
Remember, Lance has won 7 Tour De France's and use to be a top triathlete. If he really wanted to, I am sure he could throw down a 2:20-something, even on his first marathon, but I don't see him going all out in his first race. I think the upper bound for Lance will be a 3:45; which is what his ex-wife ran at NYC in 2004. You better beleive he's coming in under that!